Climate

Validating the moisture codes of the FWI System in New Zealand pine plantation fuels

This study sought to undertake an investigation into validating the FWI System fuel moisture codes for New Zealand pine plantation fuels. Despite recommendations to do so, no assessment has been carried out of the FWI System to New Zealand conditions. It is important that fire managers have faith in the capability of the FWI System. It must provide accurate information for managers about the risk of fire for fire prevention activities, and to prepare for and respond to fires when they occur. 

The findings suggest that the fuel moisture codes of the FWI System may not be performing adequately for accurate fire danger assessment in New Zealand plantation forests. However, this study was an initial attempt to validate the FWI System using just two pine plantation sites in Canterbury. Further research is recommended to fully validate the FWI System in New Zealand pine plantations.

Download a copy of the:
FWI Project Report (full)
FWI Project Report (without appendix)
FWI Project Report Appendix

A Fire Danger Climatology for New Zealand

This report is the result of research carried out by the Fire Research programme and funded by the New Zealand Fire Service Commission Contestable Research Fund. The principle objective of this project was to extend and improve the New Zealand fire climatology analysis undertaken in 1996 (published as Fire Technology Transfer Note 10). This study updated the original analysis to include data from 127 of the 177 weather stations contained within the National Rural Fire Authority's fire weather network. Long-term average and extreme values for each of the weather and Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components have been summarised by month, fire season and year. These summary tables include fire danger class frequencies for Forest and Scrubland vegetation types, and results have also been grouped and ranked by region. The report is available electronically, in 6 parts. The first part is the main report, summarising the methodology and results of the analysis. The remaining parts consist of the summary tables for each weather station, and these have been grouped into 5 regions covering the country. Click on the relevant link below to access and download the reports.


Download a copy of  main report.  

Download a copy of  North Island appendix.  [1,045 Kb PDF]

Download a copy of  South Island appendix. [729 Kb PDF]

Use of Long-term Fire Danger Data Sets to Predict Fire Season Severity

This report summarises research completed by the Fire Research programme with funding from the New Zealand Fire Service Commission ‘s Contestable Research Fund to develop an analytical methodology for comparison and prediction of fire season severity This was achieved by conducting statistical analyses on measures of fire season severity – including the Cumulative Daily Severity Ratings (CDSR), Drought Code (DC) and Buildup Index (BUI) – for a subset of 7 weather stations with long-term fire climate records (>30 years). Two contrasting analytical approaches were investigated: (1) analyses of statistical similarity between fire season trend curves, as the basis for identifying the historical season most similar to current conditions; and (2) fitting of parametric functions that characterise the general shape of fire season trend curves, and use of derived function descriptors to predict intermediate as well as fire season end values. The parametric curve fitting approach offers the most promise in terms of being able to forecast trends in fire season severity, at least up to 1-2 months in advance. An ExcelTM-based spreadsheet package encompassing the parametric curve fitting approach was developed and, while still requiring further development and testing before it can be used in an operational setting (e.g., within FWSYS), does appear to offer promise as a means of predicting future trends in fire season severity.

Impact of Climate Change on Long-term Fire Danger

This report details the findings of research conducted by the Rural Fire Research programme in conjunction with NIWA, funded by the New Zealand Fire Service Commission’s Contestable Research Fund, on likely changes in fire danger under scenarios of climate change for New Zealand. Regional climate change scenarios for the 2080s to the long-term weather records were applied to 52 individual stations contained in the fire danger climatology database. Two General Circulation Models (GCMs) – CSIRO and Hadley – with contrasting spatial patterns of climate change were used to investigate the effects on fire danger. GCM model outputs were “downscaled”, using a statistical technique developed for New Zealand by NIWA, to recreate daily fire weather and fire danger records. High, low, and mid-range scenarios of climate change were generated for each model. Results from this study indicate that New Zealand is likely to experience more severe fire weather and fire danger, especially in the Bay of Plenty, east of both islands and the central (Wellington/Nelson) regions.

Link to copy of full report.  

Impact of Climate Variability on Fire Danger

This research project , conducted jointly by the Rural Fire Research programme and NIWA with funding from the New Zealand Fire Service Commission Contestable Research Fund, sought to improve understanding of the potential effects of climate variability on fire climate and fire danger trends in New Zealand, and to determine likely differences in fire danger for the two key natural cycles that operate over time scales of seasons to years (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and decades (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation). Differences in fire danger under the individual and combined phases of ENSO and the IPO were compared using long-term fire weather records contained in the fire danger climatology database developed previously. Results from the study indicate that the ENSO and IPO climate variability cycles can increase or decrease fire dangers in different parts of the country depending on the phase, driven by patterns in rainfall and temperature changes, and while fire dangers appear to be driven more by ENSO than by the IPO, there is also some evidence of reinforcement of ENSO fire dangers by the IPO. Knowledge of these impacts of natural climate variability on fire danger will allow fire authorities to better prepare for the risks associated with these seasonal to interannual climate cycles.

Link to copy of full report. 

Prediction of Fire Weather and Fire Danger

This project, lead by NIWA and funded by the New Zealand Fire Service Contestable Research Fund, investigated methods for forward prediction of severe fire weather. It aimed to bridge the gap between current forecasts of day-to-day changes and climate forecasts of changing risks over the coming months, so that assessments of fire weather severity can be made earlier than at present. The research used innovative methods developed by NIWA for forecasting fire risk from two to four weeks ahead for fire risk regions that utilises a set (or "ensemble") of weather forecast model runs that capture the inherent uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation. The scheme predicts the likely range of temperature (daily maximum and minimum, soil), average wind speed, daily rainfall and solar radiation at 70 sites, with rainfall and temperature at over 100 sites, from one day out to two weeks, with an extension that estimates temperate and rainfall for a month out. To go to monthly forecasts, the predictions for the first two weeks of the 30-day period are used to estimate the probability distribution of outcomes for the whole 30-day period.  Here, we assess the utility of this scheme to predict fire weather, described using the fuel moisture codes and fire behaviour indices contained within the Fire Weather Index (FWI) System module of the NZFDRS.

Link to copy of full report. 

Analysis of seasonal trends in the Drought Code in New Zealand

The Drought Code (DC) component of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) System provides a measure of the effect of long-term drying on the moisture content of deep, compacted organic layers within the soil profile. Fire managers have expressed concern that values of the DC component are increasing over time in New Zealand due to calculation issues, particularly a lack of annual re-setting, or possibly climate change. Trends in DC values for a number of stations from several regions of the country were investigated to determine whether these concerns were justified. The study also forms part of the broader validation of the FWI System to New Zealand conditions.

Download a copy of the full report. 



 

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8 documents, showing page 1 of 1 Show page: 1