Climate

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  A Fire Danger Climatology for New Zealand

  H. Grant Pearce, K. Leigh Douglas and John R. Moore
  

  The principal objective of the project was to extend and improve the New Zealand fire climatology analysis undertaken in 1996. This was prepared for the New Zealand Fire Service Commission Contestable Research Fund.

  30/05/2003. 41pp.
  [458.1 KB].

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  The principal objective of the project was to extend and improve the New Zealand fire climatology analysis undertaken by Pearce (1996). This study comprised three main steps: compilation of a database of daily fire weather records for each weather station by replacing missing or erroneous values with suitable data from appropriate substitute stations; recalculation of Fire Weather Index (FWI) System and associated fire danger class values from the completed weather input datasets; and statistical analysis of long-term average and extreme (min/max) values of weather and fire danger components for each weather station. The principal output from the analysis is a summary table for each of the 127 stations containing the long-term average and extreme values of each of the weather FWI system components summarised by month, fire season and year. In addition, the summary tables include fire danger class frequencies for forest and scrubland vegetation types, also by month, fire season and year. Summary statistics for each station were used to identify the individual weather stations and geographic regions with the most severe fire climates
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  Impact of Climate Change on Long-term Fire Danger

  H. Grant Pearce, A. Brett Mullan, M. James Salinger, Todd W. Opperman, Darrin Woods, John R. Moore.
  

  This report details the findings of research conducted on the likely changes in fire danger under scenarios of climate change for New Zealand.

  89pp.
  [3.4 MB].

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  This report details the findings of research conducted by the Rural Fire Research programme in conjunction with NIWA, funded by the New Zealand Fire Service Commission’s Contestable Research Fund, on likely changes in fire danger under scenarios of climate change for New Zealand. Regional climate change scenarios for the 2080s to the long-term weather records were applied to 52 individual stations contained in the fire danger climatology database. Two General Circulation Models (GCMs) – CSIRO and Hadley – with contrasting spatial patterns of climate change were used to investigate the effects on fire danger. GCM model outputs were “downscaled”, using a statistical technique developed for New Zealand by NIWA, to recreate daily fire weather and fire danger records.
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  A Fire Danger Climatology for New Zealand - North Island Fire Danger Climate tables

  
  

  North Island Fire Danger Climate tables, Appended to "A Fire Danger Climatology for New Zealand

  161pp.
  [1.0 MB].

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  A Fire Danger Climatology for New Zealand - South Island Fire Danger Climate tables

  
  

  South Island Fire Danger Climate tables, appended to "A Fire Danger Climatology for New Zealand"

  95pp.
  [728.5 KB].

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  Fire climate severity across New Zealand

  Grant Pearce, Jessica Kerr, Veronica Clifford & Heather Wakelin
  

  The objective of this study was to provide improved information on fire climate severity across New Zealand.

  04/2011. 86pp.
  Scion reference Client Report No. 18264. [4.5 MB].

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  The objective of this study was to provide improved information on fire climate severity across New Zealand. This was achieved by conducting an updated analysis of historical fire weather records using additional data collected since the previous analysis in 2003, and by mapping regional variability in fire climate severity. The resulting information provides an improved description of New Zealand's fire climate for use in defining fire hazardscapes for rural fire management, including the delineation of boundaries for Enlarged Rural Fire Districts.
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  Use of Long-term Fire Danger Data Sets to Predict Fire Season Severity

  H. Grant Pearce and John R. Moore
  

  This report summarises research completed by the Fire Research programme with funding from the New Zealand Fire Service Commission ‘s Contestable Research Fund to develop an analytical methodology for comparison and prediction of fire season severity.

  30/06/2004. 57pp.
  [1.6 MB].

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  This report summarises research completed by the Fire Research programme with funding from the New Zealand Fire Service Commission ‘s Contestable Research Fund to develop an analytical methodology for comparison and prediction of fire season severity. This was achieved by conducting statistical analyses on measures of fire season severity – including the Cumulative Daily Severity Ratings (CDSR), Drought Code (DC) and Buildup Index (BUI) – for a subset of 7 weather stations with long-term fire climate records (>30 years). Two contrasting analytical approaches were investigated: (1) analyses of statistical similarity between fire season trend curves, as the basis for identifying the historical season most similar to current conditions; and (2) fitting of parametric functions that characterise the general shape of fire season trend curves, and use of derived function descriptors to predict intermediate as well as fire season end values. The parametric curve fitting approach offers the most promise in terms of being able to forecast trends in fire season severity, at least up to 1-2 months in advance. An ExcelTM-based spreadsheet package encompassing the parametric curve fitting approach was developed and, while still requiring further development and testing before it can be used in an operational setting (e.g., within FWSYS), does appear to offer promise as a means of predicting future trends in fire season severity.
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  Impact of climate variability on fire danger

  Pearce, H.G., Salinger, J. & Renwick, J.
  

  This report sought to improve understanding of the potential effects of climate variability on fire climate and fire danger trends in New Zealand, and to determine likely differences in fire danger for the two key natural cycles that operate over time scales of seasons to years (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and decades (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation).

  01/08/2007. 117pp.
  [1.4 MB].

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  This research project, conducted jointly by the Rural Fire Research programme and NIWA with funding from the New Zealand Fire Service Commission Contestable Research Fund, sought to improve understanding of the potential effects of climate variability on fire climate and fire danger trends in New Zealand, and to determine likely differences in fire danger for the two key natural cycles that operate over time scales of seasons to years (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and decades (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation). Differences in fire danger under the individual and combined phases of ENSO and the IPO were compared using long-term fire weather records contained in the fire danger climatology database developed previously. Results from the study indicate that the ENSO and IPO climate variability cycles can increase or decrease fire dangers in different parts of the country depending on the phase, driven by patterns in rainfall and temperature changes, and while fire dangers appear to be driven more by ENSO than by the IPO, there is also some evidence of reinforcement of ENSO fire dangers by the IPO. Knowledge of these impacts of natural climate variability on fire danger will allow fire authorities to better prepare for the risks associated with these seasonal to interannual climate cycles.
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  Prediction of fire weather and fire danger

  Renwick, J., Salinger, J., Zheng, X. & Pearce, G.
  

  This project, lead by NIWA and funded by the New Zealand Fire Service Contestable Research Fund, investigated methods for forward prediction of severe fire weather.

  01/06/2007.
  [1.7 MB].

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  This project, lead by NIWA and funded by the New Zealand Fire Service Contestable Research Fund, investigated methods for forward prediction of severe fire weather. The research used innovative methods developed by NIWA for forecasting fire risk from two to four weeks ahead for fire risk regions that utilises a set (or "ensemble") of weather forecast model runs that capture the inherent uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation. The scheme predicts the likely range of temperature (daily maximum and minimum, soil), average wind speed, daily rainfall and solar radiation at 70 sites, with rainfall and temperature at over 100 sites, from one day out to two weeks, with an extension that estimates temperate and rainfall for a month out. Here, we assess the utility of this scheme to predict fire weather.
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  Improved estimates of the effect of climate change on NZ fire danger

  Grant Pearce and Jessica Kerr
  

  This study provides improved estimates of fire danger for New Zealand under future climate.

  05/2011.
  Scion reference Client Report No. 18087. [1.3 MB].

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  This study provides improved estimates of fire danger for New Zealand under future climate. Fire danger ratings for two projection periods (the 2040s, 2030-2049; and 2090s, 2080-2099) were estimated using monthly changes in weather inputs (temperature, humidity, wind speed and rainfall). These changes were obtained from downscaling of 16 global climate models for the A1B emissions scenario from the IPCC’s 4th Assessment applied to local weather station observations. Changes in two fire climate severity measures – the Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR), and number of days of Very High and Extreme (VH+E) Forest fire danger – were estimated for 20 station locations.