Two of New Zealand’s new public research organisations have collaborated on a recent article aimed at better understanding climate change and wildfire risk.

Scientists from the Bioeconomy Science Institute and Earth Sciences New Zealand co-wrote Climate change and wildfire risk: Planning for wildfire risk in Aotearoa New Zealand, which was published in the New Zealand Planning Institute’s quarterly magazine.

New Zealand is prone to many natural hazards, including wildfires. While most are well understood and established mitigation strategies are in place to reduce risks, wildfires have largely been overlooked, within planning, particularly planning for the possibility of wildfires extending into urban boundaries. Recent climate change modelling shows New Zealand is likely to experience more frequent and extreme wildfires events in the future. This, combined with urban expansion into wildfire-prone areas, indicates a need for an increased focus on preparing for them as part of residential planning and development at the rural-urban interface.

“Wildfires pose a risk to people, animals and private and public assets in the rural-urban interface (RUI),” co-author and Bioeconomy Science Institute Lisa Langer says. “In combination with urban development expanding rapidly into wildfire-prone areas, there is increased urgency to integrate wildfire risk into planning processes in these areas.”

Wildfires have threatened or destroyed residential areas in the RUI in recent years. Examples include the 2017 and 2024 Christchurch Port Hills fires, Pigeon Valley in 2019 and the 2020 Lake Ōhau, Twizel fire.

All these wildfires impacted communities and caused many people to evacuate from their homes.

So far, wildfires have not yet spread into suburban or urban areas in New Zealand, but many international examples show the devastation that can occur when they do. Despite this, houses continue to be built in areas that present a high wildfire risk with limited mitigation planning.

The published article outlines findings from regulatory framework analysis completed as part of the Bioeconomy Science Institute’s Extreme Wildfire research programme. It also draws on initial findings from a case study focusing on the fast-growing town of Rolleston, 25km west of Christchurch. Interviews and a planning workshop were run in Rolleston, alongside with Selwyn District Council and planning professionals. The research indicated limited consideration of wildfire planning for new residential housing developments but an interest in information to support consideration of this topic.

The article was co-authored by Lisa Langer and Andrea Grant from the Bioeconomy Science Institute and Annet Forkink, Xuemei Tang and Simon Wegner from Earth Sciences New Zealand.